The Treasury yield curve has inverted because of massive amounts of wealth being moved into US Treasuries… from Hong Kong… in what would be traditionally called a “flight to safety”. This is distorting the treasury market.
The people of Hong Kong are far from stupid.
Although I wonder about the talking heads in the US.
For the record, of course, there will be another recession. Why? Because there is always another recession. When? Who knows. But the famous indicator is currently subject to large external forces such a Chinese Military massing in the Shenzhen province just outside of Hong Kong. It’s called “Market Distortion”. One which is being created by the profound uncertainty of the future of Hong Kong due to the expected Communist Chinese invasion/crackdown.
We talked about this being worthy of your undivided attention almost 8 weeks ago.
It remains an event of greater importance than whether a Pedophile Auto-Erotically Strangled himself from the top bunk of his jail cell or was hit by the CIA… seriously… who gives a sh*t?
And Frankly, I always loved Recess.
7 Comments | tags: China, flight to safety, Hong Kong, inverted yield curve, investion, Recession | posted in business, economics, investing, News, politics, Uncategorized
Now more than ever China needs Hong Kong to remain an engine of Capitalism.
We’ve talked before about Socialist Countries existing at the teat of Capitalist Countries. Socialism cannot create wealth. Nothing has changed.
When China took control of Hong Kong in 1997 it was widely thought the Socialist country would quickly destroy all that made Hong Kong prosperous. Many believed, with good reason, that the oppressive, individual hating, top-down governing ideology would not be able to tolerate the freedom and individual liberty associated with Hong Kong.
Surprising the world, China instead chose to isolate Hong Kong from the rest of the country. It was a brilliant move by horrible people. China held Hong Kong as an asset in its ‘portfolio’ with the realization that the prosperity Hong Kong created was essential to the perpetuation of China’s oppressive Socialist Ideology.
Don’t be fooled… Hong Kong remained an irritant to many of the Elitist Chinese Politicians. But economically it was a sound decision if it was the life of the oppressive, human hating, Chinese Socialist ‘Utopia’ which ultimately mattered. Those 1997 Autocrats in waiting were on the precipice of unimaginable wealth to be gleaned from a relatively new trade partnership with the United States. The full absorption of Hong Kong could wait a little while until a new engine of wealth was fully realized…
Fast forward to 2019…
The overt move to bring Hong Kong ‘into the fold’ of China’s Democratic Socialist Dictatorship has been underway for a little over a decade. But a disruption, an Orange Swan if you will, occurred which turned the finely set table over.
Suddenly something changed.
The people of Hong Kong rediscovered their value when the prettiest girl in the room decided she ‘ain’t got no sugar’.
China’s ‘new’ engine of wealth, the United States, decided not to play anymore. Hong Kong was back!
This move alone has thrown China’s long term plans into question.
The resistance from the United States to the contemporary trade agreements with China has provided Hong Kong with the ability to resist… making Hong Kong important once again. China once again needs them… badly…
China’s long term existence is questionable, at best, without the United States and is certainly headed for a catastrophe without both the United States and Hong Kong combined.
This is an important Global event and deserves all of our attention.
4 Comments | tags: 1997, ain't got no sugar, China, Communism, death, democratic socialism, destruction, extradition, Hong Kong, nixon, oppression, riots, Socialism, socialism lives at the behest of capitalism, Trump, unrest | posted in business, economics, History, investing, News, politics, Uncategorized
So there I was, Minding my own Scotch… and I get a message from X. In the most perfunctory way possible he made clear it was time for me to dig myself out from the secure comfort I’ve been enjoying and return to the fray.
Who am I to disagree?
I have to say right up front, it has been an exciting few months. From the ANTIFA-Facists to the complete fabrication of accusations used to slime a man who is far better than I, the Theater of the Absurd never ends.
The timeliness of X’s prompt is exquisite. It just so happened that I was struck by something so profoundly stupid that I was seriously considering putting my drink down. So let’s go there first…
A Gentleman by the name of Ruchir Sharma said the following on what used to be a go to network for business news;
“We may or may not believe in [American exceptionalism], but the financial markets have never believed in it to such an extent,” added Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.”
Please read that again real quick.
I would ask Mr. Sharma what American Exceptionalism has to do with a booming economy? If he is speaking to Property Rights and the influx of foreign investment which is recognizing the United States as a Safe Haven for their wealth, then okay… maybe… but I’m not sure he is. I believe he is conflating the financial success of the current economic reforms, which are returning the United States to its position as the World Leading Economic Engine, with Freedom and Liberty of the Individual. I would then remind Mr. Sharma that it is the latter which constitutes “American Exceptionalism”.
Why is this such a big deal?
It’s a big friggin’ deal because the Socialist Democrats have been diligently dumbing down our population for decades in the hopes ‘educated’ individuals like Mr. Sharma will intentionally or unintentionally continue to do their work for them. Sadly, they have been very, very, successful.
However, in his defense let’s assume Mr. Sharma knows what American Exceptionalism is. Now let’s take the beginning of his assertion… “We may or may not believe in [American Exceptionalism]…”. I then have to ask who it is that does not believe in Freedom and Liberty of the Individual? You speak as if you know or this opening qualification would not be necessary.
Yes, yes… I know these people are out there Hammering away at the Malleable Proletariat but I like to have them on the record so we all know who they are which is why I ask. (One of the reasons I’ve been hiding out around the Barnes and Noble in Tyson’s Corner, aside from all the TOTALLY COMMON and super awesome Gang Rape Parties that EVERYONE has ALL THE TIME around the short hop to Bethesda, is watching how Trump’s mere existence is bringing these Socialist Democrat A-holes out into the open.)
So Who is it, Mr. Sharma, that does not believe in American Exceptionalism? Who is it exactly that does not believe in the Freedom and Liberty of the Individual and the power inalienable rights has unleashed upon the World propelling the United States to the most powerful country on Earth in just a short few hundred years? Who are these people who believe a person’s rights are bestowed upon them by Government made up of fallible, elitist, narcissistic beings and not God… or the Universe… or simply because they Exist?
It’s okay, Mr. Sharma, I know you can’t do this for several of reasons. 1.) You may be one of those people. 2.) You like your paid gig and wish to keep it by specifically not offending those fallible, narcissistic elitists who employ you. 3.) Both 1 and 2.
So allow me to say what I’m hoping you meant to say.
The Current Economic Boom occurring in The United States is substantially due to the removal of barriers upon the Engine of Capitalism which were erected by Socialist Scum as they believe it’s not ‘Fair’ that Free (er) Markets are so damned successful and restraining them is the only hope for their foolish Command and Control Economic Idiocy to catch up.
Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I’m sure that’s what you wanted to say…
Now we wait for Ruth Buzzy Ginsberg to retire and the ensuing melt down.
The Left is the proverbial ‘drowning man’… it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
11 Comments | tags: barriers to entry, booming fiancial markets, Canada, China, Communism, communists, Democrats, economic barriers, Elitists, EU, fair, freedom and liberty, India, Mexico, property rights, regulations, Russia, Socialism, Soviets, tarrifs, trade wars, trading, U.S. Economy | posted in History, investing, News, politics, social issues, Uncategorized
This must also be what the Chinese are thinking right now.
If Trump is genuine regarding Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum coming from outside the United States it must be considered Economic War.
The debilitating effects of Tariffs are well documented following Smoot-Hawley.
I am guilty of under estimating the negotiating skill of this man… and I must remind myself that he is a graduate of Wharton School of Business. I must remind myself that he Knows where this will go.
So let’s assume this is the opening shot across the bow of an international trade war.
The White House is desperately trying to keep the focus of proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum on the increased cost of goods which will be directly passed to the consumers. (This is also how corporate taxes work… but that’s for another day.) The Maison Blanc is currently sending Peter Navarro out to sell the tariffs with talking points implying there will be ‘only a penny increase on the cost of a six-pack of beer’ and ‘only $45 to the cost of a new car’… I sh*t you not. Navarro knows better, too.
Why do I find this an amazing point in time? Because once you read a bit about the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs (linked above) we imposed with only the best of intentions during the 30’s and the resulting consequence of extending the duration of the Great Depression you quickly realize it’s not the direct impact which hurts the most.
It’s the Indirect Impact.
It’s the Retaliation.
It so happens that we American’s have had our productivity and living standards vastly increased by our ability to access inexpensive goods from… China.
Chew on that for a second.
Now think about the fact that China is a poisonous concept based in Communism/Socialism that exploits its population as life is cheap under such a horrid Governing Theory. It is also an open secret that China must… must… create a quarter of a million new jobs every month or they risk a full-out pitchfork rebellion… not just the condemnation of a pathetically partisan Socialist Press as we endure here in The United States.
Which of us can weather the economic impact we both know will result?
This is nothing short of War.
I’m not sure it’s not time… but I’m not sure it is.
5 Comments | tags: aluminum tariff, China, economic warfare, great depression, smoot-hawley, steel tariff, trade war, Trump tariff, war, World War III | posted in economics, History, investing, News, politics, social issues, Uncategorized
What is the FBI actually up to when it comes to Apple?
To understand you have to get your mind around where we are today.
We are on the precipice of created secure communication that relies on identifiers such as voice recognition, retina identification, speech pattern and tone, facial recognition… anon. We will soon see phones and devices that only respond to the specific individual who ‘owns’ therm. We will be able to send messages, voice, text, etc. that only the intended recipient can access.
The Government sees this clearly…
Since Government views Private Communication as a Weapon.
They are simply attempting to make creation of such ‘encrypted’ communication illegal to distribute to The Public without an ability to defeat it being simultaneously created.
In other words, they are trying to get ahead of the technology by seeking a precedent through the courts which would require companies to cease creation of ever more secure communications (again, For the Public…) which they, the Government and the Company itself, cannot access through a back door. Every encryption program would require a key, built-in decoding or means of access for third a third-party.
The FBI would be fine (currently) with Apple being the only one with the ability to access your phone as long as the Government has legal precedent on their side to Force Apple, or whatever company owning the tech, to comply with their demand of information. If the Company in question refuses to comply… in typical Socialist-Fascist behavior, the Government destroys the company.
Keep in mind, Deciphering messages is ‘easy’ (in the most complex meaning of the word) for our Government. (Reference Quantum Cryptography) But… if there is no message to ‘decrypt or decipher’, then they are impotent.
Here we are.
This is what the FBI-Apple battle is really about.
We are on the edge of genuine privacy within our electronic communications…
…and We like it.
…and our Government Hates it.
The aspect of this I find most interesting is ‘What about the rest of the World and their Governments?’
Do you think China is going to stop this technology in its tracks? What about Russia? Iran?
Of course not. Those with the Power of Force will capitalize on these abilities and utilize it to control their respective populations.
All of this ‘court ordered access’ will only apply to None Government folks… us.
3 Comments | tags: advances in technology, Apple, control, Encryption, FBI, iPhone, secure communication | posted in business, investing, News, politics, social issues, Uncategorized
It appears Burger King is Buying Tim Horton’s in Canada so it can move it’s base of operations up North to avoid the confiscatory corporate tax rates in the United States.
Let me ask anyone who see’s this as a Treasonous Betrayal…
Do you want the Number Two Fast Food Chain to stay in business so it can pay the Artificially High Minimum Wages set by politicians and moronic voters?
Yes… I do!
Well that’s what they’re trying to do, so you should be headed to the Burger Kind Drive-Up Window for your Double Whopper with Cheese and a Large Coke that you know you Love. (Eat it while you drive.) Instead of calling for a Boycott.
No… I don’t!
Then you Hate minimum wage workers. You Hate readily available nutrition for the poor. You Hate the additional time afforded those single Moms who have to work three jobs and don’t have time to make dinner at home. You just Hate. Hater.
You created this conundrum. Sleep in it.
I’m just excited now that I can get my Double Whopper with Cheese, Extra-large Coke and an order of Fries WITH Gravy and Cheese Curds! Brilliant!
(Some Day BK might see clearly and bring back the Veal Parmesan Sandwich. I would buy shares at that point.)
1 Comment | tags: 40 hour work weeks, aritifical wages, big king, burger flippers, Burger King, butter your doughnuts, buy out, Canada, chicken sandwhich, coffee, Coke, DESFM, Diet, employment, extra large, fries, gravy and fries, i hate big corporations, i hate minimum wage workers, Jobs, low end jobs, merger, minimum wage workers, one ingredient cookbook, Putin, sizes, Slap Diet, tim hortons, unemployment, up north, veal parmesan sandwich, whopper | posted in Humor, investing, News, politics
(And the effort begins… “Obama’s Stocks“? A Bloomberg “business” story with no mention of Inflation due to the Quadrupling of the Money supply. Drudge led with this today… And I’m following up with a purposeful repost from 011513)
What you are about to see…
In a couple of years or less there will be news stories touting the flood of new Millionaires. It will be attributed to the Brilliance of the President’s Socialist economic policies which are Keynesian in nature.
This will happen.
But what will be left out is that a Million dollars will buy you a loaf of bread.
While that will hopefully be an exaggeration, the cost of basic necessities has almost doubled since the President took office and there appears to be no end in sight.
The general public has… I would say “no understanding” but that might be generous… a negative, or less than any, understand of the relationship between a dollar and a dollars buying power.
One must first understand that the only reason a “Million Dollars” means anything is because of what it can buy… not because it’s a big number. I possess a Zimbabwe 1-Trillion Dollar note. This does not make me rich. It has no buying power, so aside from its representation of what we as a country are headed for, it has no value. It’s worthless. And… it’s WAY more than a Million Dollars.
We need to be ready for all the stories about recovery using inflated dollars to substantiate them. I hear the presses being inked as I tap this out.
Considering the Left is willing to equate anyone trying to stop irresponsible spending and the subsequent destruction of the greatest nation on the planet to slavery… you know the stories are being written right now.
Because no one wants to read about economic collapse…
Get your wheel barrows ready… you might have to go to the store for bread.
But we’ll be Millionaires!
And the Left will take credit… unless we see it for what it is, then they’ll blame everyone else.
6 Comments | tags: debt ceiling, deficit spending, Economic collapse, food lines, inflation, millionaires, obama's stocks highest, stock market going strong, stocks hit 5-year high, zimbabwe | posted in economics, investing, News, politics, Uncategorized
…just isn’t as easy as it used to be.
It wasn’t long ago you could just make a call to Lehman Brothers or Goldman Sachs and have them sell off large amounts of specific equity positions. The Market would take the cue and a wide sell-off would materialize. Everybody would Freak Out. The Party who had the most friends in the right place on Wall Street would win whatever argument they wanted to win. It was great!
But it appears tough times for the Obama Administration as the Fed has installed “circuit breakers” in order to control swift and sudden drops in the market.
So we have watched the market drop gently. Very gently. Sleepily even.
It’s a lot like a Drunk Driver coming towards you at a blazing 1 mph. It just doesn’t have the same effect.
Those of us who participate actively in the market are simply “stepping out-of-the-way”.
There is no panic to be found.
Barack just can’t get a break.
1 Comment | tags: 401K, buffers, circuit breakers, drunk drivers, equities, fear, freak out, Goldman Sachs, investing, lehman brothers, manipulating the markets, manufacturing a market crash, market crash, market drop, panic, stepping out of the way, stock, uptick rules, Yellin | posted in economics, investing, News, politics, Uncategorized