This must also be what the Chinese are thinking right now.
If Trump is genuine regarding Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum coming from outside the United States it must be considered Economic War.
The debilitating effects of Tariffs are well documented following Smoot-Hawley.
I am guilty of under estimating the negotiating skill of this man… and I must remind myself that he is a graduate of Wharton School of Business. I must remind myself that he Knows where this will go.
So let’s assume this is the opening shot across the bow of an international trade war.
The White House is desperately trying to keep the focus of proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum on the increased cost of goods which will be directly passed to the consumers. (This is also how corporate taxes work… but that’s for another day.) The Maison Blanc is currently sending Peter Navarro out to sell the tariffs with talking points implying there will be ‘only a penny increase on the cost of a six-pack of beer’ and ‘only $45 to the cost of a new car’… I sh*t you not. Navarro knows better, too.
Why do I find this an amazing point in time? Because once you read a bit about the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs (linked above) we imposed with only the best of intentions during the 30’s and the resulting consequence of extending the duration of the Great Depression you quickly realize it’s not the direct impact which hurts the most.
It’s the Indirect Impact.
It’s the Retaliation.
It so happens that we American’s have had our productivity and living standards vastly increased by our ability to access inexpensive goods from… China.
Chew on that for a second.
Now think about the fact that China is a poisonous concept based in Communism/Socialism that exploits its population as life is cheap under such a horrid Governing Theory. It is also an open secret that China must… must… create a quarter of a million new jobs every month or they risk a full-out pitchfork rebellion… not just the condemnation of a pathetically partisan Socialist Press as we endure here in The United States.
Which of us can weather the economic impact we both know will result?
This is nothing short of War.
I’m not sure it’s not time… but I’m not sure it is.
makeaneffort 
March 3rd, 2018 at 9:47 am
Either you are correct, or its a bargaining ploy. I’m not sure, but you make a plausible case. It might be time (and the NORKs tie-in, as well) it might not be. I don’t know either, but perhaps something has to be done sometime, or not. If you think Neo hasn’t a clue, you’d be right.
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March 3rd, 2018 at 10:39 am
I’m right there with you. I’m 60/40 in favor of ‘it is a bargaining ploy’ but the seriousness of this move cannot be down played… which I guess is my point.
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March 3rd, 2018 at 10:42 am
Yep. Most things don’t really matter when he talks about them, this might. You managed to say it, I mostly went “Huh? what?” If it’s a ploy, it’s likely to be an effective one, I think, but scary.
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March 3rd, 2018 at 9:06 am
After reading this post I have to admit my thought was, “Is Mike serious?” No, really. Sometimes I can’t tell if a post of yours is sarcastic or serious. this is one of those posts.
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March 3rd, 2018 at 9:15 am
yep. I’m serious. Trade wars are demonstrably devastating. Check out the link to Smoot-Hawley. It’s also worth noticing here that our leading trade partner for steel (products) is Canada, however Canada buys it’s raw steel from… wait for it… China. It’s no secret that I’m an Austrian Economist Free Trader type. If China wants to exploit their population, fine. If we don’t like it we should be working to communicate with China’s population and foment change internally. But that’s my side of it. What I see here is nothing short or an Economic War which China started by flooding western markets with artificially cheap raw materials thus eroding their ability to produce them themselves. Socialists using the open markets against themselves with the specific desire to undermine other countries is nothing new. What I find compelling, and I think I’ll repost something from the past on this, is Socialism survives at the teat of Capitalist Countries. They need Capitalism in order to create wealth because their Governing Paradigm does not supply a method to do so short of seizing it. This is an interesting point in time.
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